Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

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Market context

Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Tehran's primary civilian hub located approximately 40 kilometres south-west of the city centre, has operated intermittently since its opening in 2004. The market tests whether at least one aircraft will achieve takeoff from IKA between now and 30 June 2026, with resolution contingent on FlightAware tracking data or corroborating Iranian civil aviation records. Gate departure alone does not satisfy the condition; only wheels-up matters for settlement purposes.

Historical precedent suggests the 100% implied probability reflects structural realities rather than speculative positioning. IKA has weathered regional tensions, sanctions regimes, and periodic operational suspensions since 2004, yet has consistently resumed service within months rather than years. The airport handled roughly 7 million passengers annually before 2018 sanctions escalation; even under maximum constraint scenarios documented by aviation databases, at least one departure per settlement window has occurred in every comparable historical period examined. The two-year window to 2026 substantially exceeds typical disruption durations.

Current catalysts centre on Iran's civil aviation authority announcements regarding fleet serviceability and international sanctions relief negotiations. Recent reporting from Reuters (January 2024) indicated Iran Air and regional carriers maintaining skeleton schedules despite aircraft availability constraints. Traders should monitor SWIFT banking access restoration—critical for fuel procurement and spare parts—alongside any formal declarations from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation regarding operational capacity. Seasonal demand peaks (summer 2025, winter 2025–26) increase departure probability, though even minimal winter operations would satisfy resolution criteria.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.