Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet announced a model formally named "Claude Mythos" or designated as belonging to a "Mythos-class" product line. The company's current public offerings—Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus—follow a distinct naming convention established since 2023. A release of a model bearing the Mythos designation would represent a material shift in Anthropic's product strategy and nomenclature, distinct from incremental version updates to existing model families. The settlement window closes on 30 June 2026, allowing approximately 18 months for such an announcement and public availability.

Historical precedent suggests caution in predicting novel product lines from frontier AI labs. When OpenAI introduced GPT-4 in March 2023, it followed GPT-3.5 without intermediate "named" model classes; subsequent releases (o1, o3) emerged only after extended development cycles. Anthropic's own product releases have typically been announced via blog post or API documentation rather than through separate brand launches. The 0% implied probability reflects the absence of any public roadmap, investor guidance, or leaked documentation suggesting a Mythos-branded release within the settlement window.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, earnings calls (should the company pursue public markets), and API release notes. Recent reporting from The Information and VentureBeat has tracked Anthropic's model development timelines, though neither has referenced Mythos nomenclature. Regulatory frameworks—including the German GlüStV's classification of prediction markets and CFTC jurisdiction over binary outcomes in US-accessible venues—do not alter the underlying factual question: whether Anthropic will use this specific product name by mid-2026. Markets on this platform operating under the £1,500 no-KYC threshold remain subject to standard settlement verification procedures.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.