Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| <70,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT spot price at the 12:00 ET noon candle close on 24 May 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal trading activity; given the settlement window extends nearly two years forward, sparse liquidity at launch is typical for long-dated cryptocurrency price markets.
Regulatory frameworks governing access to this market vary by jurisdiction. The German GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classifies prediction markets as gaming products requiring state licensing; UK users face no blanket prohibition but must verify the operator's FCA status or equivalent. US traders encounter CFTC oversight of cryptocurrency derivatives, though spot-price prediction markets occupy a grey zone between gaming and derivatives regulation. Many platforms enforce KYC thresholds—no identity verification required for positions under $1,500 USD—which affects market accessibility and order-book depth. This particular market's long time horizon and narrow settlement window (a single 1-minute candle) mean position sizing and liquidity constraints will shape participation patterns differently than shorter-dated contracts.
Bitcoin's price drivers over the next 24 months include Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC on spot ETF frameworks. Halving events, mining difficulty adjustments, and macroeconomic inflation data historically correlate with volatility spikes. Traders should monitor scheduled Congressional hearings on digital assets and any major exchange listing announcements, as these have moved spot prices materially within hours. The noon ET timestamp adds execution risk; traders must account for potential flash volatility around US market opens and economic data releases.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Bitcoin price on May 24? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →