Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at noon Eastern Time on 10 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that the specified price level will not be reached at that precise moment. Settlement depends entirely on Binance's recorded data for that single candle, making execution risk and exchange-specific pricing a material consideration rather than broader market movements.

Historical precedent suggests that single-candle price targets at specific times face structural headwinds. Intraday volatility clustering around US market opens and macroeconomic announcements can produce sharp moves, but hitting exact price levels within a one-minute window requires either extreme volatility or the price already trading near that level. Markets with 0% probability typically reflect either a price target far from current spot or a settlement mechanism so narrow that even plausible price action rarely satisfies it. Previous Binance-specific markets have shown that exchange-level data discrepancies and slippage during volatile periods can create resolution disputes, though Binance's candle data is generally treated as authoritative by prediction platforms.

Traders monitoring this market should watch Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases scheduled between now and May 2026, as these typically drive Bitcoin's directional bias. Regulatory announcements from the CFTC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF custody rules or the SEC's stance on self-custody could shift volatility expectations. The German GlüStV framework and evolving KYC requirements across jurisdictions may affect trading volume on Binance during the settlement window, potentially influencing the liquidity available at noon ET on the specified date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.