Market statistics
- Total volume
- $651K
- 24h volume
- $416K
- Liquidity
- $291K
- Open interest
- $347K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at precisely 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 15 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data available on Binance's spot trading interface. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that same day, providing a four-hour window after the noon ET reference point for price confirmation and any necessary dispute resolution. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded data, not prices from other exchanges or trading pairs, which can diverge significantly during volatile periods.
The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that particular moment. Historical precedent suggests such certainty in crypto markets often reflects either a threshold set well below current spot prices or minimal volatility expectations for the specific time window. Bitcoin's intraday volatility at noon ET has historically ranged from negligible to several percentage points depending on macroeconomic announcements and Asian market overlap, making the probability assessment dependent on the actual price level embedded in the market title.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and US economic data releases scheduled for early May 2026, as these typically drive Bitcoin volatility during US trading hours. Regulatory developments from the CFTC regarding Bitcoin futures and spot market oversight could also influence price action. The noon ET timestamp coincides with overlap between Asian and European market closes, potentially concentrating liquidity and reducing slippage for large orders on Binance, though this varies by day of week and seasonal factors.
Wikipedia Context
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BitcoinBitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. Use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009, with the release of its open-source implementation. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender curre
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Bitcoin in El SalvadorEl Salvador was the first country in the world to use bitcoin as legal tender, after it was adopted as such by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador in 2021. It has been promoted by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who claimed that it would improve the economy by making banking easier for Salvadorans, and that it would encourage foreign investme
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History of bitcoinBitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. Originally designed as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin is now primarily regarded as a store of value.
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Bitcoin buried in Newport landfillIn 2013, Welsh computer engineer James Howells mistakenly disposed of a laptop hard drive containing the private key for 8,000 Bitcoin in the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales. Howells subsequently assembled a team of specialists and secured funding to excavate the site, but Newport City Council refused permission, citing the environmental impact of the se
Methodology
This overview of Bitcoin above 2026 on May 15? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. PolyGram stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. PolyGram exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), PolyGram would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Trade Bitcoin above 2026 on May 15? on PolyGram
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