Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 31 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market settles to "No" if data is unavailable, making data integrity from Binance the sole operational dependency. Resolution brackets will favour the higher range if the spot price lands exactly between two thresholds.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine structural uncertainty rather than bearish conviction. Bitcoin has traded between roughly $16,000 and $73,000 across the past five years, a range so wide that any single-point prediction faces inherent difficulty. Historical comparable markets on Bitcoin's price at fixed future dates show persistent difficulty in crowd calibration when settlement windows extend beyond eighteen months; the longer the horizon, the flatter implied distributions tend to become. This market's May 2026 endpoint sits approximately eighteen months forward, placing it at the boundary where macro volatility and regulatory shifts compound forecasting noise.

Traders monitoring this market should track US CFTC guidance on Bitcoin spot ETF custody standards, which influences institutional accumulation patterns, and German GlüStV licensing developments affecting European exchange operations. The UK's FCA approach to crypto asset classification will also shape liquidity flows into 2026. For traders accessing this market without full KYC verification—many jurisdictions permit trading up to £1,500 notional exposure anonymously—settlement reliance on Binance's published data means exchange operational continuity becomes a material risk factor. Recent regulatory tightening in major jurisdictions has occasionally caused temporary data feed disruptions; such events would trigger "No" resolution regardless of actual Bitcoin price movement.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.