What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 13 June 2026 will be shaped by macroeconomic conditions, central bank policy signals, and institutional adoption trends eighteen months forward. The 1% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty of pinpointing a specific asset price on a given date rather than directional conviction; historical volatility in Bitcoin's daily moves—often 2–5% swings—makes precise price prediction a statistical outlier event.

Comparable prediction markets on Bitcoin price targets show that single-day price forecasts attract minimal liquidity and skew toward extreme outcomes. During the 2021–2022 cycle, similar day-specific markets settled on edge cases or saw minimal trading activity, as traders prefer range-based or monthly settlement windows. The current 1% probability aligns with base-rate expectations for any narrow price band in a volatile asset class, not a signal of market disbelief in Bitcoin's existence or tradability on that date.

Regulatory frameworks will influence market access. Germany's GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) treats prediction markets as gaming products under state supervision; UK traders face FCA oversight of crypto derivatives. The US CFTC's jurisdiction over Bitcoin futures and spot products continues to expand, though non-KYC trading up to £1,100 (approximately $1,500) remains available on some platforms, potentially affecting liquidity tiers for this market. Traders should monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions, Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets, and any major institutional custody announcements in the months preceding June 2026, as these typically drive sustained price movements rather than single-day spikes.

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.