MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is whether Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, disposes of any Bitcoin before the end of 2025. The current 0% implied probability is best read against the company’s long-running pattern of accumulation rather than sale: it reported 714,644 BTC held as of 8 February 2026, with an aggregate purchase price of $54.35 billion and an average cost of $76,056 per coin. That scale matters because a sale would be a clear break from the treasury model it has used since 2020, and would likely be visible in company filings and on-chain flows. For comparison, recent market chatter has focused far more on further purchases than exits, with commentary in early 2026 pointing to continued aggressive buying rather than liquidation.

For traders, the main catalysts are formal company announcements, quarterly and 8-K disclosures, debt servicing needs, and any change in the financing mix used to fund Bitcoin purchases. Coverage from CryptoBriefing and other recent reporting has highlighted market expectations of continued acquisitions, while also noting a high likelihood that the firm could sell by late 2026, which helps explain why the 2025 window may still price near zero. On accessibility, these events sit within a German GlüStV framework that can restrict exposure to unlicensed betting products, while US CFTC jurisdiction may still reach aspects of marketing or access depending on structure. “No-KYC up to £1,500” generally means a user can participate without full identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that threshold, but it does not change the underlying contract terms, geoblocking, or applicable compliance rules for this specific market.

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Methodology

We track MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.