What price will Bitcoin hit on May 19?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price at the May 19 snapshot had already been trading well above the lower bands implied by the market. Statista put BTC at about $78,135 on 17 May, after $79,069 on 16 May and $81,052 on 15 May, while Fortune reported $80,120.03 at 9:15 a.m. Eastern on 15 May. That leaves the current 0% YES reading easier to read as a view on where the settlement print lands, not a view on whether Bitcoin had been weak or strong intraday. Earlier in 2026, SoFi said BTC ranged from a January high near $97,861 to a February low around $60,074, showing how quickly the tape has been able to move across wide bands.

For a trader, the main watchlist is the close-to-settlement flow: exchange prices, any spot ETF or macro-related headlines, and whether the benchmark feed used by the venue stays orderly through the settlement window ending 2026-05-20T04:00:00Z. Robinhood says its crypto markets use CF Benchmarks’ Real Time Index, which matters because final prints can differ from headline spot quotes. On access, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means smaller-size participation can usually be made without full identity checks, but larger exposure or withdrawals can trigger verification. For German users, the GlüStV framework is relevant because prediction-market access can be treated differently from ordinary crypto trading, while US CFTC reach remains a practical issue for products available to US persons, even when hosted offshore.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.