Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Aurora and Team Falcons will compete in a best-of-three lower bracket semifinal at DreamLeague, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The match is scheduled for 23 May 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. DreamLeague is one of Dota 2's premier annual tournaments, attracting top-tier teams from across Europe, CIS, and Southeast Asia. The lower bracket format means both teams have already lost once; this match determines who remains in contention for the championship.

The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally strong market conviction about Aurora's superiority or, more likely, illiquidity and sparse trading activity typical of niche esports markets. Historical Dota 2 prediction markets show that extreme probabilities (95%+ either direction) often compress significantly once meaningful volume arrives, particularly when one team has recent form uncertainty or roster changes. Team Falcons and Aurora have competed across multiple regional and international qualifiers; their head-to-head record and recent LAN performances should anchor any reassessment of this probability. Comparable lower bracket matches at DreamLeague have frequently produced upsets when the underdog team fields a substitute player or executes a novel draft strategy.

Traders should monitor official DreamLeague scheduling updates and team announcements through 22 May, as roster confirmations or last-minute stand-ins materially affect match outcomes. The settlement window closes 23 May at 23:00 UTC, allowing seven days for completion; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved state beyond 30 May triggers a 50-50 resolution. Under German GlüStV and UK Gambling Commission frameworks, this market remains accessible to UK users without KYC up to £1,200 cumulative exposure. US CFTC jurisdiction applies if the platform operates US-facing services; binary sports outcomes typically fall outside derivatives regulation if properly structured as prediction contracts rather than leveraged instruments.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.