Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic must record a Nasdaq Private Market valuation at or above the listed threshold on any trading day before 31 December 2026 for this market to settle “Yes”. At 13% implied probability, the crowd is discounting a large re-rating from the company’s last publicised financing, rather than a routine follow-on round. Anthropic said in February 2026 that it raised $30 billion in Series G at a $380 billion post-money valuation, while Sacra reported in May 2026 that talks were under way for at least $30 billion more at a pre-money valuation above $900 billion. That gap shows why traders should treat the market as a pricing of future financing terms, not a simple read-through from headline revenue growth.

For context, private-company valuation markets tend to move on financing announcements, secondary transactions and any indication that tender prices are being reset. Reuters and the Financial Times have also reported that Anthropic is preparing for a possible 2026 listing, though the company has said it has not decided when or whether to go public. The relevant catalyst is any disclosed NPM price that meets the threshold, not an IPO filing itself. Because NPM prints only on trading days and updates the following business day, late-December transactions can still matter if they are captured in the published series before the resolution window closes.

Regulatory and access terms also shape how this market is used. For German participants, prediction markets can implicate the GlüStV framework if access is treated as gambling-like activity; the practical question is whether a platform is offered lawfully into Germany and how local restrictions are applied. In the US, the CFTC’s jurisdiction is the key federal reference point because event contracts can fall within derivatives rules depending on venue and structure. On accessibility, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade without identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that limit, but the exact threshold is platform-specific and does not remove wider compliance obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.