NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat, held on 23 June 2026, to nominate the candidate who will contest the general election in November. With Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, George Conway and Jack Schlossberg among the contenders, the race is crowded and moneyed yet lacks clear public belief in any single nominee, as recent reporting from *The New Yorker* notes[2]. The market’s current 1% implied probability for a specific outcome reflects this uncertainty, mirroring historical cases where high-spending, multi-candidate primaries produced fragmented support and delayed consensus, such as several 2020 New York House primaries where no candidate secured a decisive lead until late in the cycle.

Traders should monitor candidate announcement schedules, fundraising disclosures from the FEC and emerging poll data, as these are the primary catalysts for shifting sentiment[6][7]. A recent surge in campaign finance activity has been documented, but belief remains low across the field, suggesting that a clear frontrunner may not emerge until the final weeks before the primary[2]. The settlement window ends 23 June 2026, with a fallback resolution to “Other” if no nominee is announced by 3 November 2026. For accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach frame the regulatory environment, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means UK and EU traders can access this market without identity verification for stakes below that limit, enhancing participation for retail users in this specific election context.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.