Market statistics
- Total volume
- $471K
- 24h volume
- $458K
- Open interest
- $12K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (72)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
GamerLegion and Vici Gaming are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 13 May at 1:00 PM ET. The fixture represents a significant regional clash, with Vici Gaming historically positioned as a stronger competitive force in the Chinese Dota 2 ecosystem, whilst GamerLegion operates primarily within the European circuit. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in one outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds; such readings typically reflect sparse trading volume rather than certainty of result.
Comparable esports matches at this tier show resolution volatility driven by roster changes, recent patch adaptations, and team form trajectories. Vici Gaming's track record in international tournaments provides historical context, though GamerLegion's European pedigree and recent DreamLeague performances merit consideration. The settlement window extends to 23:00 UTC on 13 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled start before triggering the 50-50 tie resolution clause should delays occur without completion.
Traders should monitor official DreamLeague scheduling confirmations and any last-minute roster announcements, particularly regarding stand-in players or visa complications that have historically affected Chinese teams in European tournaments. Recent patch notes affecting hero viability and meta shifts warrant attention, as these typically influence preparation depth and team confidence. Confirmation of match commencement and completion status remains critical, given the forfeiture and cancellation resolution conditions embedded within the market's terms.
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. PolyGram has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for PolyGram?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), PolyGram would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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