Portugal vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Portugal and DR Congo are scheduled to meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 1:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. The 6% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: predicting an exact scoreline rather than a winner or goal range is inherently difficult, and any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the plurality of possibilities.

Exact-score markets in World Cup football have historically shown that outcomes clustering around 1–0, 2–1, and 2–0 results account for roughly 40–50% of all group-stage matches, whilst scorelines beyond 3–1 become progressively rarer. Portugal's recent tournament record—reaching the Euro 2024 semi-finals and qualifying for Qatar 2022—suggests a squad capable of controlling possession and creating multiple chances. DR Congo, by contrast, has not qualified for a World Cup since 1974 and faces a significant gap in squad depth and tournament experience. Historical precedent suggests that matches between established European sides and African qualifiers in their first tournament appearance often produce comfortable victories, though the exact margin remains volatile.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, particularly Portugal's attacking personnel and goalkeeper status. Group composition and fixture scheduling—whether either side enters the match with qualification already secured or eliminated—will materially affect tactical approach and intensity. Settlement depends on the match proceeding as scheduled; postponements or cancellations would extend the market window beyond the stated 17 June deadline.

Methodology

We track Portugal vs. DR Congo - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.