Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, the United States men’s national team will face Türkiye at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, in a FIFA World Cup Group D match where only the 90-minute regulation score counts for settlement. The USMNT has already secured the group win regardless of this outcome, having defeated Paraguay 4–1 and Australia 2–0 in prior fixtures, while Türkiye lost both of its opening matches [1][5].

Historically, the two nations have met only four times since 1991, with the US holding a 2W–1L–1D record and winning the last two encounters, the most recent being in 2003 during the now-disbanded FIFA Confederations Cup [2]. This narrow head-to-head sample, combined with Türkiye’s current World Cup struggles and the US’s group dominance, frames the 5% crowd-implied probability for an exact score as a reflection of low volatility rather than a specific scoreline prediction, mirroring how similar “exact score” markets in past World Cups resolved when one side was already eliminated or had secured advancement.

Traders should monitor official line-up announcements released by FIFA and the US Soccer Federation before kick-off, as any late changes to key players like Brenden Aaronson or Patrick Agyemang could shift in-play dynamics [2][3]. Additionally, watch for real-time weather updates from Los Angeles Stadium, as rain or extreme heat can alter passing accuracy and goal frequency, factors that directly impact exact score outcomes. No recent regulatory announcements have altered market accessibility, but the German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks continue to define compliance boundaries, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision ensures this market remains accessible to retail participants without identity verification, provided they stay within that threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.