Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, the United States Men’s National Team will face Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The contest determines the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with the US already having clinched a Round of 32 spot after two wins, while Türkiye sits eliminated with two losses and no goals scored in their first World Cup appearance in 24 years[2][7].

Historically, when one side is eliminated and the other has secured advancement, the probability of a draw at halftime drops sharply, as seen in the US 2–0 victory over Australia where the Americans dominated early despite playing without Christian Pulisic[3]. Similarly, Türkiye’s 2–0 loss to Australia on 14 June showed their inability to convert possession into goals, reinforcing the 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” on a draw at halftime[1].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late fitness updates for Pulisic, whose calf injury remains a dependency for US attacking depth[3]. The US may also adjust tactics if they aim to secure top spot in Group D, which hinges on Paraguay’s result against Türkiye later in the day[3]. Regulatory accessibility remains a factor: German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks govern such markets, while “no-KYC up to $1,500” allows broader participation without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific fixture[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.