Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June 2026. The 62% implied probability for a Haiti victory reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive history between the two nations. Scotland ranks 37th in the current FIFA world rankings, whilst Haiti sits outside the top 100. Scotland qualified directly for the tournament as a UEFA member; Haiti earned qualification through CONCACAF, the North American confederation. Direct head-to-head records between these teams are sparse, with no recent competitive matches to establish form or tactical precedent.

Historical precedent suggests underdogs in World Cup group matches rarely exceed 40% implied probability unless they hold recent wins or play at home. Haiti's last competitive fixture against a European side came in 2016 Copa America Centroamericana qualifying. Scotland's recent record includes competitive matches against Ukraine, Spain, and Norway in UEFA Nations League. The current 62% probability assigned to Haiti appears elevated relative to comparable fixtures involving teams of similar ranking differential, suggesting either market uncertainty about Scotland's form heading into June 2026 or pricing in Haiti's home confederation advantage in CONCACAF preparation.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions if accessed from EU jurisdictions, with US CFTC oversight applying to American traders. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD per position permits retail participation without identity verification up to that stake level, widening accessibility for casual World Cup betting. Settlement occurs immediately after the final whistle on 14 June 2026 at 01:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.