Türkiye vs. United States

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye meet the United States in a FIFA World Cup group match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on 25 June 2026, with the market settling after the scheduled kick-off window closes at 02:00 UTC on 26 June.[2][6][7] The current crowd price of 25% YES implies a relatively low chance of Türkiye winning outright, and that should be read against the exact match status rather than the wider tournament draw, because this is a single 90-minute fixture with settlement tied to the official result.

The historical frame is limited but useful: the two sides have met four times since 1991, with the United States holding a 2-1-1 edge and winning the last two meetings.[4] Recent market and sportsbook snapshots also put the US as the slight favourite, which is broadly consistent with a 25% Türkiye YES price if the contract is binary on a Turkish win rather than “Türkiye or draw”.[1][3] For regulatory context, German GlüStV rules are relevant because they restrict access to unauthorised betting-style products in Germany, while US CFTC oversight can reach event contracts offered to US persons depending on structure and venue; both issues affect where and how a trader can access the market, not the match itself.

The main catalysts are squad and injury updates, confirmed line-ups, and any late tournament scheduling changes, especially because this fixture closes Group D for the United States and follows the tournament-wide round-robin calendar.[2] Accessibility is also part of the trading picture: “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means a user can trade within that cumulative threshold without completing full identity checks, which lowers friction for small positions but does not remove jurisdictional limits or platform compliance controls.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.