Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Resolution depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives hourly observations from the National Weather Service feed. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess seasonal temperature patterns and any anomalous weather systems forecast for early June in the New York metropolitan area.

New York's June temperatures typically range from 75°F to 85°F, with historical highs occasionally exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity in competing ranges. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show considerable variance: 9 June 2019 peaked at 79°F, whilst 9 June 2023 reached 84°F. This historical spread indicates meaningful uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve as correct, and the current probability distribution warrants scrutiny against seasonal norms and longer-term climate trends.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 9 June 2026, particularly any heat advisories or unusual pressure systems developing over the Atlantic. The market's accessibility is governed by UK Financial Conduct Authority rules and German GlüStV regulations for cross-border participants; traders in jurisdictions permitting prediction markets without KYC verification up to £1,200 equivalent may access this market with reduced documentation, though LaGuardia's official weather station designation ensures transparent, auditable settlement criteria independent of market-maker discretion.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.