Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, a date historically prone to humid, high-pressure conditions that push Seoul’s summer heat toward 35°C or higher. Current market sentiment assigns zero probability to the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range defined for resolution, despite recent June highs reaching 91°F (32.8°C) just days prior on 19 June 2026[3].

Historical patterns frame this probability: Seoul’s June averages climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F (30.6°C), yet extreme outliers have shattered records, with Hongcheon hitting 41.0°C in 2023 and Seoul itself reaching 39.6°C in 2018[2][8]. These precedents indicate that while typical highs stay moderate, sudden spikes driven by the North Pacific high-pressure system can breach 35°C, making the zero probability a potentially risky bet if an anomalous heatwave occurs[5].

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Service’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure ridge, which could trigger rapid temperature surges. Recent reports from Anadolu Ajansı highlight South Korea’s record-breaking July heat, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C in 2023, underscoring the volatility of regional summer temperatures[7]. Regulatory accessibility remains constrained by German GlüStV and US CFTC rules, though the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows limited participation for small traders without identity verification, provided they comply with local tax obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.