Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 8 June 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. The highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day—measured in Celsius and sourced from Wunderground's historical data—will resolve the outcome. June sits within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon period, when daily highs typically range between 28–34°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 36–38°C occur roughly once per decade during early summer.

Historical temperature records from Shenzhen show that June peaks cluster around 32–33°C under normal conditions, with outlier days exceeding 35°C linked to high-pressure systems stalling over southern China. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-typical day or scepticism about extreme heat materialising. Comparable June forecasts from prior years indicate that sustained heat waves—which would drive temperatures above 35°C—require specific atmospheric patterns: weak upper-level troughs and persistent subtropical high-pressure ridges. Without such conditions, mid-range outcomes (30–33°C) remain most probable.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable skill. El Niño or La Niña phase status in early 2026 will influence regional pressure patterns; current Pacific conditions should be tracked through NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Local air quality and pollution levels, published daily by Shenzhen's environmental authority, can also signal atmospheric stability—stagnant, polluted conditions often accompany heat retention. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 8 June, giving traders access to Wunderground's historical records within hours of market close.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.