US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have remained stalled since the Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. The question of whether a new written agreement will be formalised by July 2026 hinges on whether either a restored nuclear deal, a separate confidence-building accord, or any other bilateral arrangement reaches signature stage. The 85% crowd probability reflects expectations that diplomatic channels will produce at least a framework agreement within the next 18 months, though the specificity required—both parties must sign the same document or individual documents substantively indicating acceptance of identical terms—sets a high bar beyond mere statements of intent.

Historical precedent suggests caution. The JCPOA itself took over a decade of intermittent talks before signature in 2015, whilst smaller bilateral agreements (prisoner exchanges, sanctions relief protocols) have occasionally materialised despite broader tensions. Current catalysts include the 2025 US presidential transition, Iran's domestic political calendar, and ongoing indirect talks through intermediaries including Oman and Iraq. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP indicates backchannel discussions continue, though no formal negotiations table has been convened since 2022.

From a market-access perspective, UK traders should note that prediction markets on geopolitical events fall outside German GlüStV gambling regulation when operated by non-EU platforms, whilst US CFTC oversight applies only to derivatives contracts on regulated commodities. No-KYC trading up to £1,100 (approximately $1,500) permits retail participation without identity verification, though larger positions trigger standard compliance checks. This market's settlement depends on verifiable public documentation of signature, making regulatory clarity on what constitutes "authorised representative" documentation essential for dispute resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.