Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy stance over the next quarter hinges on three consecutive FOMC decisions: mid-March, late April, and mid-June 2026. Each meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate moves higher, lower, or remains static. The current 0% probability assigned to a rate cut across this window reflects market expectations that the Fed will either hold steady or continue tightening, contingent on inflation data, employment figures, and broader economic conditions reported between now and June.

Historical precedent suggests that three consecutive cuts within a single quarter remain uncommon outside recessionary periods or acute financial stress. The Fed typically signals policy shifts well in advance through forward guidance, and abrupt reversals across multiple meetings within ninety days occur primarily when economic conditions deteriorate sharply. The 2020 emergency cuts and the 2023 banking-sector response cuts both involved rapid sequences, though those were extraordinary circumstances. Current market pricing reflects baseline assumptions that no such shock materialises in the first half of 2026.

Traders monitoring this market should track monthly non-farm payroll releases, Consumer Price Index data, and Fed communications closely. The March employment report (released early April) will inform April's decision; April's inflation readings will shape June's outcome. Recent commentary from Fed officials regarding sticky services inflation and labour-market resilience will establish the baseline. Any material deterioration in economic data—particularly a sharp unemployment spike or deflationary shock—would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities away from the current consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.