How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

The question is how many vessel transits the Strait of Hormuz records in the week beginning 11 May, with IMF Portwatch data as the settlement source. That matters because the strait normally handles a large share of Gulf energy exports, so even short disruptions can shift trade flows, insurance costs and tanker routing quickly. Current pricing at 1% YES implies the market is treating a low weekly count as very unlikely, despite the recent shipping crisis around the waterway. In regulatory terms, prediction markets offered to German residents remain exposed to the GlüStV framework, while US-facing activity can still sit within CFTC jurisdiction if it amounts to regulated event-contract activity. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold, where offered, generally means limited participation can occur without full identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that cap, but it does not remove platform, payment, or jurisdictional restrictions.

Comparable episodes show why the crowd has been wary of overreacting to headline blockages. CSIS notes that the strait has been effectively closed since 2 March in the wider 2026 crisis, yet vessel-tracking data and rerouting have still produced sporadic transits rather than a clean stop. The practical reference point is not whether ships are trying to avoid the area, but how many IMF Portwatch still counts each day. Earlier reporting also suggested that some tankers continued to move, while the pace was erratic enough to keep weekly totals volatile.

For this week, the main catalysts are any new Iranian, US, or regional maritime announcements, plus changes in routing decisions by major carriers, which can alter the daily count even without a formal reopening. Watch for updates from port authorities, naval escorts, and oil shippers, as well as any fresh vessel-tracking summaries; a recent YouTube recap cited 78 commercial ships redirected by 16 May and only a handful of May transits, underlining how operational data can lag headlines. Because settlement depends strictly on IMF Portwatch’s published transit calls for 11-17 May inclusive, late data releases or backfilled entries are the key dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.