Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been running far below normal since the February disruption, and Reuters reported on 29 April that just six vessels crossed in the previous 24 hours, with the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Centre still describing traffic as limited and routing decisions as uncertain.[3][7] That leaves the market’s 60-ship 7-day average threshold well above recent conditions, so the current 8% implied probability reads as a bet on a fast and sustained normalisation rather than a brief uptick.[3][7]

For context, comparable stress periods in March saw analysts and shipping commentators describe passage as suppressed, with roughly 120 passages typically expected but a sharp fall after the security shock; at the same time, carriers began adding war-risk surcharges and vessels considered rerouting or running with AIS off.[2] IMF PortWatch has already tagged the episode as a trade disruption event tied to attacks on commercial ships, which matters because the market settles only on PortWatch’s own published 7-day moving average, not on port rumours or spot counts elsewhere.[7] For accessibility, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a smaller position can usually be placed without full identity verification, but that does not change the fact that German GlüStV restrictions may still bite for users in Germany, and the US CFTC jurisdictional reach remains relevant where a platform is offering or intermediating derivatives-like event contracts to U.S. persons.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.