Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A nationwide internet blackout in Iran commenced on 28 February 2026 during active military engagement involving the United States and Israel. This market settles affirmatively only if credible international reporting establishes that general internet connectivity has been restored across Iran by 30 April 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the severity of the blackout and the compressed timeframe—roughly two months to reverse a state-imposed communications shutdown tied to an active conflict.

Historical precedent suggests extended Iranian internet disruptions are difficult to reverse mid-conflict. The 2019 nationwide blackout lasted approximately one week during domestic unrest; the 2022 protests saw partial, rolling restrictions lasting weeks. However, those episodes occurred during internal crises rather than international military engagement. A ceasefire or negotiated settlement would be the primary catalyst for restoration, as would a significant shift in military dynamics reducing Iranian government incentives to maintain the blackout. Traders should monitor ceasefire announcements, diplomatic statements from regional actors, and reports from organisations like Netblocks or the Internet Society documenting connectivity patterns.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable and falls within CFTC jurisdiction for US participants. Polymarket-kyc.co.uk permits trading without KYC verification up to $1,500 notional exposure per market, meaning most retail participants can engage without identity verification. Positions exceeding that threshold trigger standard identity and source-of-funds documentation. The compressed settlement window and geopolitical volatility create elevated price discovery risk; traders should size positions accordingly.

Methodology

We track Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.