"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Scary Movie franchise revival is scheduled for theatrical release on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance measured across the 5–7 June period. Resolution will depend on final domestic gross figures published on The Numbers, with ties between brackets resolving upward. The 0% crowd probability suggests either minimal market participation or genuine scepticism about the film's commercial viability in a crowded summer slate.

Historical Scary Movie entries (2000–2013) opened between $42 million and $86 million domestically, though the franchise's last theatrical outing was 2013's Scary Movie 5, which grossed $34.3 million opening weekend. The gap of thirteen years creates uncertainty around audience appetite for revival content; however, horror-comedy hybrids have shown resilience in recent years, with films like Cocaine Bear (2023) and M3GAN (2023) performing above baseline expectations. The franchise's cultural footprint and existing fanbase provide a floor, yet the extended dormancy and fragmented theatrical landscape present genuine headwinds against blockbuster-tier performance.

Traders should monitor production budget disclosures, which typically emerge in trade publications like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter in the weeks preceding release, as these inform studio confidence and marketing spend. Marketing intensity during May 2026 will signal distributor expectations. Additionally, competing June releases and broader box office trends in spring 2026 will shape audience availability. The settlement window closes 8 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, allowing final weekend counts to be verified before resolution. Under German GlüStV frameworks, prediction markets on entertainment outcomes face scrutiny if structured as wagering; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments. Markets accessible without KYC verification up to $1,500 notional exposure remain compliant in most jurisdictions, though this market's specific regulatory treatment depends on host jurisdiction classification.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.