Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most votes in either round, or to "Other" if results remain unclear by 31 December 2026. Current incumbent Gustavo Petro, elected in 2022 on a left-wing platform, is constitutionally barred from immediate re-election, opening the field to new candidates across the political spectrum.

Historical precedent suggests Colombian runoffs occur frequently: the 2022 election went to a second round, as did contests in 2010 and 2018. When first-round fragmentation occurs—typical in Colombia's multi-party system—second-round dynamics shift substantially as candidates consolidate support and negotiate coalition backing. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a first-round decisive result or minimal trading activity at present. Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines (typically several months before polling), polling aggregates from firms like Invamer and Gallup, and statements from major political blocs regarding endorsements.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. German traders face restrictions under GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) unless the platform holds appropriate licensing; US traders fall within CFTC oversight of prediction markets, though certain exemptions apply. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold common on some platforms means smaller positions may bypass identity verification, though larger stakes typically trigger standard customer identification requirements. Traders should verify their platform's specific compliance posture before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.