Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The ceasefire between the US and Iran has so far held, but it has been described as fragile rather than settled. Markets treated the June 2026 truce as a risk-off event: oil fell sharply, equities rebounded, and later reporting showed the agreement was tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and to further talks, not a durable peace deal. That matters for pricing, because a 100% implied “Yes” leaves no room for a sudden public confirmation of renewed kinetic action on Iranian soil, which is the main disqualifying trigger in this market.

Comparable cases show how quickly a ceasefire can look stable and then deteriorate. In April 2026, reporting from Fortune described the Iran-US framework as already under strain within a day, with Tehran accusing Washington of violations and markets reacting only modestly at first. IG also noted that the truce was temporary, with formal talks due in Islamabad and the Strait of Hormuz reopening dependent on coordination with Iranian forces. The legal and venue angle matters too: under Germany’s GlüStV, access is tightly regulated and products like this can fall into a restricted gambling perimeter, while US CFTC reach can apply if a platform is deemed to offer derivatives-style exposure to US persons. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to open and trade small positions with only limited identity checks, but that does not remove country restrictions or change the legal character of the market.

Traders should watch for White House statements, Iranian state media, and any credible wire reporting on strikes or retaliatory action, especially if they occur close to the resolution date and are confirmed within the market’s one-day window. Also relevant are any scheduled talks, hostage or sanctions announcements, and shipping updates on the Strait of Hormuz, since those have been the clearest dependency in recent reporting. If the ceasefire is maintained in public statements and no qualifying US strike is confirmed, the market should continue to track the status quo rather than day-to-day rhetoric.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.