Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with neither party conducting direct kinetic strikes on the other's territory since April. This market tests whether that restraint persists through a specified date, with resolution hinging on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American military action on Iranian soil. The confirmation window is narrow: any qualifying strike must be publicly documented within one calendar day of occurrence.

Historical precedent suggests sustained US-Iran abstention is uncommon but achievable. The 2020 Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian missile strikes represented a cycle of escalation and de-escalation; the current ceasefire has lasted longer without reciprocal strikes. Comparable periods of restraint—such as the 2015–2018 JCPOA period—show that diplomatic or tacit understandings can hold for extended intervals, though regional proxies and miscalculation remain persistent risks. The 100% crowd probability reflects either high confidence in continued restraint or insufficient liquidity to move odds downward.

Traders should monitor several catalysts: statements from US Central Command regarding Iranian activities, any attacks on American assets by Iranian proxies that might trigger retaliation, and diplomatic communications through intermediaries. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News has tracked Iranian military posturing and US force deployments in the Gulf, though neither has confirmed imminent strikes. The market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV regulatory requirements, whilst US participants encounter CFTC oversight depending on contract classification. No-KYC access up to $1,500 typically applies to prediction markets structured as information contracts rather than derivatives, though this varies by platform and regulatory interpretation.

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.