Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s selection of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner, with the announcement expected on 9 October in Oslo. The current 9% crowd price implies a fairly open field rather than a clear favourite, which is consistent with the committee’s habit of rewarding long-running peace, human rights or conflict-resolution work rather than short-lived diplomatic headlines. Recent nominations have included 287 candidates in total, 208 individuals and 79 organisations, according to the Nobel Peace Prize site, and the market’s settlement rules create extra path-dependency if a joint award is made or if one of the named edge cases is involved.

For context, previous Nobel Peace Prize markets have often moved on nomination publicity rather than on any formal shortlist, because the committee does not publish a ranking and keeps deliberations confidential. That makes prices sensitive to media coverage around high-profile nominees such as Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy or humanitarian groups, but also prone to sharp reversals once the field broadens. On the current market, German GlüStV rules matter because betting-style access can be restricted for users in Germany, while US CFTC jurisdiction can also affect whether a given platform or user interaction is available. Where offered, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means some users can trade or withdraw only up to that threshold without full identity verification; above it, additional KYC checks are typically required, which may limit how much capital can be deployed into this specific market.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.