Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will almost certainly be shaped by whether the current ceasefire and follow-on channel hold long enough for both sides to agree a format, venue and participant list. Since the two countries have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1980, most recent contacts have been indirect or mediated, including the Oman-backed rounds in 2025 and the indirect Muscat talks in February 2026.[3][2]

That history is why the crowd-implied 0% YES should be read as a strict, event-specific stance rather than a view on broader détente. Comparable cases show that even when public rhetoric improves, attendance by a named individual depends on formal authorisation, sequencing and the availability of a third-party host; the 2015 JCPOA framework and the 2025–2026 talks both hinged on tightly controlled delegations and specific diplomatic channels.[4][2][3] For accessibility, the market sits in a regulatory zone where German GlüStV restrictions may limit participation from German residents, US CFTC reach can matter if a venue is treated as a derivatives-style market, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller accounts may trade without full identity verification, although withdrawal, cumulative volume or jurisdiction checks can still apply.

Traders should watch for a formal communique from Washington, Tehran, Oman, Qatar or Pakistan naming the venue and attendees, plus any schedule tied to sanctions, uranium, detainee or ceasefire discussions. News flow matters because the June 14, 2026 pause in hostilities was presented as a 60-day window for further negotiation, so any slip in implementation, a breakdown in mediator coordination, or a shift in which ministry sends the delegation could determine who actually appears.[3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.