Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump's public statements—particularly his use of personal attacks and derogatory language toward political figures, media personalities, and other public individuals—form the basis for this market's resolution. The question centres on whether he will make at least one clearly negative personal or professional insult between market creation and 31 May 2026, using language that falls within the definition of mocking, attacking, or demeaning a named individual. The 10% implied probability reflects scepticism that such an event will occur, despite Trump's documented history of public criticism.

Trump's communication patterns over the past decade provide substantial historical context. Between 2015 and 2021, he issued hundreds of public insults via social media, press conferences, and rallies, targeting political opponents, journalists, and business figures with nicknames and derogatory characterisations. The lower current probability may reflect either the reduced frequency of his public statements since leaving office, platform restrictions on his social media presence, or market participants' assessment that his rhetoric has moderated. Comparable prediction markets on Trump's statements have typically resolved affirmatively when the threshold for "insult" was broadly defined, though resolution disputes often hinged on interpretation of tone and intent.

Traders should monitor Trump's scheduled public appearances, campaign announcements, and social media activity, particularly on Truth Social where he maintains an active presence. Any significant political developments—such as primary contests, congressional investigations, or media coverage of rivals—historically correlate with increased public statements from Trump. Recent reporting from Reuters and Associated Press indicates he remains active in Republican Party politics, suggesting ongoing opportunities for public commentary that could trigger resolution criteria.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.