Uruguay vs. Spain - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Uruguay and Spain takes place on 26 June 2026 at 8:00 PM ET in Guadalajara, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute result. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 9% for an exact score outcome, reflecting the tight defensive records both sides have shown in Group H, where Spain drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia and Uruguay drew 0-0 with Cape Verde earlier this month[1][6].

Historically, World Cup group-stage matches between these nations have favoured low-scoring draws or narrow wins, with Spain winning three of five recorded encounters since 1950 while Uruguay averaging just 0.8 goals per game[7]. This 9% probability aligns with comparable cases where exact-score markets in high-stakes group matches settled at similar odds, typically when both teams prioritise defensive stability over attacking risk, as seen in recent World Cup fixtures involving top-tier European and South American sides.

Traders should monitor Spain’s pre-match training updates and Uruguay’s final squad announcements, as any injury to key attackers like Yamal could shift the exact-score probability further[5]. Recent predictions from Yahoo Sports highlight Spain’s attacking strength against Uruguay’s goal-scoring desperation, suggesting a potential catalyst if Uruguay’s defensive line falters under pressure[8]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” for this market, allowing traders to participate without identity verification while remaining within regulatory bounds for small-stakes prediction activity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.