Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket KYC UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: rafael jodar vs felix gill. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Felix Gill in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket KYC UK has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket KYC UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket KYC UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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