Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket KYC UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 72% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 60% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mike Maignan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 27% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Alexander Isak: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Isak: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Isak: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alexander Isak: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexander Isak: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
France vs. Sweden - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 94%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of France vs. Sweden - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket KYC UK has a different geo footprint.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket KYC UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket KYC UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade France vs. Sweden - Player Props on Polymarket KYC UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →