Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti will face Scotland in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The 4% implied probability reflects the substantial gap in competitive ranking and recent form between the two nations. Scotland currently sits around 37th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Haiti ranks approximately 82nd. Historical head-to-head records and qualification pathway strength favour Scotland decisively, though World Cup qualifiers occasionally produce unexpected results when lower-ranked sides secure home advantage or exploit specific tactical vulnerabilities.

Comparable qualifying fixtures from recent cycles show that 4% probabilities typically attach to outcomes where one side holds a clear structural advantage but retains non-zero upset potential. Haiti's last competitive outing in CONCACAF qualifying demonstrated defensive frailty against stronger opponents, whilst Scotland's recent Nations League and qualifying campaign established more consistent defensive organisation. The settlement window closes 14 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing roughly 16 hours post-match for official confirmation.

From a regulatory perspective, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and platform structure. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on sporting events face stricter licensing requirements than financial derivatives. US CFTC oversight applies to platforms accessible to American traders, though sports prediction markets occupy a distinct category from commodity futures. Many platforms operate no-KYC thresholds up to $1,500 per account, meaning traders can access this Haiti–Scotland market without identity verification below that exposure level, though settlement and withdrawal may trigger verification requirements depending on operator licensing and jurisdiction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.