Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with kick-off scheduled for 10:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The current 0% probability assigned to this specific market reflects the mathematical reality that predicting an exact scoreline across dozens of possible outcomes distributes probability thinly; no single result commands meaningful backing at this stage.

Historical precedent from World Cup group matches shows that exact-score markets typically see probability consolidation only as match day approaches. Sweden and Tunisia last met competitively in 2018 World Cup qualifying, with Sweden winning 1–0. Tunisia's recent form includes a 5–1 defeat to Mali in March 2024 and mixed results in African Cup of Nations qualifying. Sweden qualified for 2026 via UEFA qualifying and finished second in their group. The wide dispersal of probability across potential scorelines—reflecting genuine uncertainty about team strength, tactical approach, and match conditions—is standard for exact-score markets months before fixture confirmation.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as June approaches, particularly regarding key attacking players. The regulatory landscape for this market varies by jurisdiction: under German GlüStV, sports prediction markets require appropriate licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments depending on contract structure; UK-regulated platforms typically allow participation up to £1,500 without enhanced KYC procedures, though this threshold and requirements vary by operator. Fixture confirmation and any schedule changes will be published by FIFA in early 2026.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.