Türkiye vs. North Macedonia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June 2026. The match is scheduled for 17:30 UTC, with settlement occurring at that fixture's conclusion. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, contingent on neither team withdrawing or the fixture being postponed due to unforeseen circumstances—a rare occurrence in official FIFA-sanctioned friendlies.

Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between established and lower-ranked nations settle without incident. North Macedonia (currently ranked outside the top 100) has participated consistently in international fixtures, whilst Türkiye (typically ranked 40–50) maintains regular friendly schedules. Cancellations of such matches are exceptionally uncommon; the last notable postponement of a Türkiye friendly occurred in 2015 due to security concerns. The current probability reflects this historical stability rather than uncertainty about whether the event will transpire.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV regulations, prediction markets on sports events face stricter licensing requirements than financial derivatives. In the United States, the CFTC's reach extends to binary sports contracts, though enforcement focuses on unlicensed operators. For traders on platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure, this market typically falls within that threshold, meaning positions below that limit may not trigger identity verification requirements—though platform terms and user location determine actual applicability. Traders should verify their platform's specific compliance framework before engaging.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.