United States vs. Germany

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A men's international football friendly between the United States and Germany is scheduled for Saturday, 6 June 2026. The match forms part of the FIFA International Friendlies calendar in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on that date, aligning with typical European evening kick-off times for transatlantic fixtures.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than predictive consensus. Historical head-to-head records between these nations show competitive, closely contested matches; the United States defeated Germany 1–0 in a 2015 friendly, whilst Germany won 4–1 in 2018. Friendly matches carry inherent unpredictability compared to competitive tournaments, as squad rotation and experimental formations are common. Recent comparable friendlies involving either nation have produced varied outcomes, making pre-match probability assessments volatile until team sheets are confirmed.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. German traders fall under GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) provisions, which classify prediction markets as gaming products subject to licensing requirements. United States-based traders face CFTC oversight of derivatives-like instruments, though the agency's enforcement posture toward prediction markets remains evolving. Polymarket-kyc.co.uk's no-KYC threshold of £1,500 (approximately $1,500 USD) provides accessibility for smaller positions whilst maintaining compliance with anti-money-laundering standards across jurisdictions. Traders should monitor official team announcements, injury reports, and confirmed squad lists as the match date approaches, as these directly influence market liquidity and probability shifts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.