United States vs. Senegal

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A men's international football friendly between the United States and Senegal is scheduled for 31 May 2026. The match forms part of FIFA's international fixture calendar in the lead-up to the 2026 World Cup, which the US will co-host. The current market probability of 100% reflects certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, with no settlement contingency for postponement or cancellation built into the odds.

Comparable friendlies involving established national teams rarely fail to materialise once fixture lists are published by FIFA and confederations. The US-Mexico friendly in March 2024 and similar pre-tournament preparation matches have consistently settled as played, even when squad rotations or minor injuries affected team composition. The 100% probability here aligns with historical precedent: friendly matches between CONCACAF and CAF nations scheduled within the official FIFA window have a near-perfect completion rate. Traders should note that friendly matches differ from competitive qualifiers in settlement terms—the event requires only that the match takes place, not any particular result.

Key catalysts include official squad announcements from both federations, typically released 10–14 days before the fixture, and any venue or scheduling changes published by US Soccer or the Senegalese Football Federation. Injury updates to key players may influence betting markets on match outcomes but do not affect whether the fixture occurs. The settlement window closes at 19:30 UTC on match day, allowing for fixture completion across US time zones. Regulatory access to this market varies: traders in jurisdictions recognising German GlüStV provisions may face restrictions, whilst US CFTC reach covers certain derivatives structures. Markets accessible without KYC verification up to $1,500 notional exposure remain available in several jurisdictions, though individual trader eligibility depends on residency and local regulation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.