Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 12 June 2026, with the match scheduled for 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 10% crowd probability assigned to this specific outcome reflects the difficulty of predicting precise scorelines in international football; exact-score markets typically distribute probability across dozens of possible results, with the most common outcomes rarely exceeding 15–20% individually.

Historical precedent from World Cup group-stage matches shows that scorelines between nations of comparable strength—Canada ranked 48th and Bosnia-Herzegovina ranked 61st in recent FIFA standings—cluster around 1–1 draws, narrow 1–0 victories, and 2–1 results. These three outcome types account for roughly 40–50% of all group-stage matches. Canada's recent form includes qualification struggles and mixed results against CONCACAF opponents, whilst Bosnia-Herzegovina has faced inconsistent European qualifying campaigns. Neither team has faced the other competitively since 2013, limiting direct precedent.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, particularly regarding Canada's attacking depth and Bosnia-Herzegovina's defensive stability. Fixture scheduling—whether either team plays a demanding match immediately before this fixture—will influence fatigue levels and tactical approach. Weather conditions in the host nation (likely the United States) and any late-stage coaching changes warrant attention. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on 12 June 2026; postponement would extend the market window until the match is completed.

Methodology

We track Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.