England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 8% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: predicting one exact scoreline among dozens of plausible outcomes carries inherent difficulty, even when favouring one team.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments typically see winning probabilities between 5–15% for individual outcomes, depending on team strength disparity and defensive records. England's recent tournament performances show defensive solidity but moderate goal-scoring consistency; Croatia's 2018 World Cup run demonstrated resilience in knockout stages but less dominance in group play. The current 8% implies modest confidence in this particular scoreline relative to alternatives, consistent with markets pricing competitive group-stage matches where 1–1 draws, narrow 1–0 results, and 2–1 outcomes fragment the probability space significantly.

Traders should monitor team news from late May through mid-June: injury confirmations for key players, final squad announcements, and any fixture rescheduling announcements from FIFA. Recent reporting on England's preparations (available via official FA channels and major sports outlets) will clarify attacking personnel availability. Weather conditions in the host nation and pitch reports from the venue become relevant in the final week. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 17 June, allowing only the match duration itself for resolution; no post-match delays affect the outcome determination.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.