Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Japan and Sweden will face in a decisive FIFA World Cup Group F match at Dallas Stadium, with the outcome determined solely by the score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. This specific market, currently implying a 6% chance for an exact score outcome, hinges on whether the final tally matches one of the explicitly listed results, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs.

Historically, similar exact-score prediction markets in World Cup group stages have shown that low probabilities often reflect the high variance in tight matches where both teams prioritise defensive stability. For instance, in the 2022 World Cup, exact-score markets for closely matched group games frequently settled at "Any Other Score" due to the prevalence of 1-0 or 2-1 outcomes that were not pre-listed. The current 6% probability aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders should expect a narrow margin where the listed exact scores are unlikely to materialise.

Traders must monitor final line-up announcements and pre-match training reports, as both teams are seeking to top Group F after recent results: Japan topped their group with a 4-0 win over Tunisia, while Sweden lost 2-0 to the Netherlands. Recent coverage from FOX Sports notes Sweden is favoured at -118, with the combined score set at 2.5 goals, indicating a potential low-scoring affair. Additionally, regulatory frameworks such as Germany’s GlüStV and US CFTC rules influence accessibility; the "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows broader participation for this market, provided transactions remain within the threshold, enhancing liquidity without compromising compliance.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.