Scotland vs. Brazil - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group C match between Scotland and Brazil, scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on 24 June 2026 at Miami Stadium, will determine progression to the knockout stage based solely on the 90-minute regulation score. Historical data shows Brazil has dominated this fixture, winning four of the five World Cup encounters since 1974 while Scotland has secured no victories and scored only two total goals across those matches[3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 6% for an "Exact Score" outcome aligns with this stark disparity, mirroring similar low-probability markets in past tournaments where a footballing powerhouse faced a historically weaker opponent with minimal offensive output[4].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and pre-match training reports released today, as squad availability could shift the goal-scoring dynamics significantly[7]. The Opta Supercomputer currently rates Scotland’s progression chances at just above 70%, suggesting a draw or narrow loss is the most likely scenario, which directly impacts the viability of specific exact-score bets[4]. Recent coverage on FOX Sports notes the combined final score is set at 2.5 goals, with Brazil heavily favoured to win at -250 moneyline odds, indicating a high probability of a multi-goal margin that complicates exact-score predictions[1].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) framework and US CFTC oversight, where "no-KYC up to $1,500" allows immediate accessibility for retail participants without identity verification for smaller stakes. This threshold ensures that traders can engage with the 6% probability market instantly, bypassing traditional compliance hurdles while remaining within legal limits for unverified accounts. The settlement window ending 22:00:00Z on 24 June 2026 provides a clear deadline for resolution, ensuring all bets are settled promptly post-match regardless of extra time or penalty shoot-outs[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.