UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento’s flyweight bout with Mitch Raposo is scheduled for UFC Fight Night on 20 June, with official UFC listings confirming the matchup after Raposo’s illness-related move from UFC Winnipeg to this card.[2][7] The market has printed at 0% YES, which is unusual for a scheduled prelim fight and suggests either very low liquidity or that traders are treating the listing as effectively settled against Nascimento; in practice, that makes the official UFC result the only meaningful reference point.[2][4]

For context, the tape favours a grappling-heavy read: Nascimento is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist and is listed at 5'8" against Raposo’s 5'5", while UFC stats show Nascimento at 22-6-0 and Raposo at 10-3-0.[8][9] That profile is consistent with past UFC flyweight markets where a clearer stylistic and experience edge has pushed prices towards the favourite, though the current zero-implied price leaves little room for a surprise finish or a close judging outcome to matter unless the fight is actually held and formally scored.[5][9]

A trader should watch for the UFC’s bout status, the final prelim order, and any late medical or weigh-in issues, because a cancellation, no contest, or postponement beyond 4 July would resolve this market 50-50 under the rules.[2][7] On access, German participants face GlüStV-related restrictions around unauthorised gambling-style products, while US-facing exposure also sits under the CFTC’s reach where an event-contract platform is offered to US persons; “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small withdrawals or positions can be taken without full identity verification, but only within the platform’s own limits and jurisdictional screening.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.