Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the WNBA match played on 24 June 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the Phoenix Mercury defeated the Indiana Fever 111–109 after Kahleah Copper scored 28 points for the visitors[5][7]. This outcome confirms the market’s 100% YES resolution to “Phoenix Mercury”, as the game concluded without postponement or cancellation, satisfying the final-score condition including any overtime.

Historical precedents in similar sports prediction markets show that when a game finishes with a clear winner and no administrative disruption, resolution follows the final score without delay, mirroring past WNBA and NBA cases where odds aligned with actual results[1]. The current 100% probability reflects this certainty, as the Mercury’s win was decisive and the Fever’s loss included a notable dependency: Caitlin Clark exited due to a back injury, altering the team’s late-game dynamics[7].

Traders should monitor post-game medical updates on Clark’s injury and any official WNBA statements regarding future roster availability, as these could influence upcoming market movements[3]. Recent coverage from CBS Sports highlights the injury’s impact on the Fever’s performance, serving as a key catalyst for assessing future team strength[7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV rules permit no-KYC participation up to €1,500, while US CFTC reach allows similar thresholds, meaning this market remains open to users without identity verification within those limits, enhancing its immediacy for retail participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.