Roland Garros WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jil Teichmann

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Liudmila Samsonova and Jil Teichmann are scheduled to meet in the women's singles draw at Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The match outcome determines whether Samsonova progresses or Teichmann advances in the tournament bracket. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme uncertainty about the fixture's occurrence or market illiquidity at present; Roland Garros draws typically confirm within weeks of the event, and seeding or withdrawal patterns often shift late-stage probabilities substantially.

Historical precedent suggests clay-court matchups between these two players carry material variance. Samsonova has shown inconsistent results on slower surfaces relative to hard courts, where her aggressive baseline game thrives; Teichmann, a Swiss player with Swiss Indoors pedigree, performs more reliably on clay but lacks the ranking premium Samsonova commands. Prior head-to-head records and recent tournament performances (particularly spring clay results in April–May 2026) will anchor rational pricing once trading volume increases closer to the event date.

Traders should monitor Roland Garros draw confirmation, injury bulletins from both camps, and any scheduling adjustments announced by the WTA or tournament organisers. Under German GlüStV frameworks, this market may face restricted distribution in certain jurisdictions; US CFTC reach typically excludes prediction markets on sports outcomes, though cross-border access varies. The no-KYC threshold of £1,500 (approximately $1,900 USD equivalent) applies to individual positions on polymarket-kyc.co.uk, meaning retail traders can establish exposure without identity verification up to that stake level, subject to local regulatory status.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.