LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Disguised and Dignitas are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LCS Regular Season on 9 May at 7:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects zero probability for a Disguised victory, suggesting either strong consensus around Dignitas superiority or minimal trading activity. Resolution depends on match completion by 16 May; cancellations, ties, or unresolved delays beyond that window trigger a 50-50 split.

The 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny against historical LCS volatility. Upsets in regional play occur regularly—teams with weaker regular-season records have secured playoff spots, and individual series outcomes often diverge from season-long trajectories. Comparable matches involving lower-seeded or underdog rosters have occasionally traded at artificially compressed odds due to thin liquidity rather than genuine predictive consensus. Without recent head-to-head records or current roster strength data publicly available, the extreme probability may reflect information asymmetry rather than certainty.

Traders should monitor LCS schedule confirmations, roster announcements, and any player availability issues in the week preceding 9 May. Patch changes affecting champion viability can shift series outcomes materially. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German players face GlüStV restrictions on prediction markets unless the operator holds explicit licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, though prediction markets occupy a grey zone. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 typically operate under interpretations that treat small-stake prediction markets as distinct from regulated financial instruments, though this classification remains contested across US states.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.