LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shopify Rebellion and Sentinels are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LCS Regular Season on 9 May at 4:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for a decisive outcome, suggesting traders expect the match to proceed as scheduled and conclude with a clear winner. Settlement hinges on match completion by 10 May at 02:00 UTC; any cancellation, tie result, or delay exceeding seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution.

The LCS has maintained consistent scheduling reliability in recent seasons, with match postponements typically occurring only due to player illness, technical infrastructure failures, or organisational crises. Comparable esports markets at this regulatory tier—particularly those under German GlüStV oversight and US CFTC jurisdiction—have historically resolved to decisive outcomes in 95%+ of cases. The 100% probability reflects this baseline expectation rather than certainty; traders should note that no-KYC markets up to $1,500 notional exposure remain accessible to retail participants in most jurisdictions, though German residents face stricter GlüStV compliance requirements for sports prediction contracts.

Key catalysts include official LCS roster confirmations, any player injury announcements, and server status updates from Riot Games in the 48 hours preceding match time. Recent LCS scheduling has remained stable through May 2026, with no reported infrastructure concerns. Traders should monitor official LCS communications for any force majeure declarations; the seven-day grace period provides a buffer for rescheduling, but extended delays remain the primary resolution risk.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.